The betting markets have been closely watching the shifting dynamics in the 2024 presidential race, with the latest developments suggesting a potential shakeup within the Democratic party. According to prediction platforms, President Joe Biden's performance in the recent presidential debate has significantly impacted his chances of securing the Democratic nomination, raising the possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the party's standard-bearer.
Betting Odds Favor Harris as Biden's Chances Plummet
Biden's Debate Performance Sparks Doubts
The betting markets have been closely monitoring the shifting fortunes of the key players in the 2024 presidential race. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic nominee have plummeted from a relatively assured 90% on Thursday morning to just 49% as of early Wednesday. This steep decline occurred primarily on Tuesday, as the former president faced some pushback from within his own party.
Harris Emerges as the Frontrunner
As Biden's chances have diminished, the betting markets have shifted their focus to Vice President Kamala Harris. Her odds of securing the Democratic nomination have risen significantly, from a mere 1% before the debate to a substantial 35% early on Wednesday, according to Polymarket. Another prediction platform, PredictIt, has given Biden even worse odds, putting him on par with Harris at 40 cents per share, which equates to a 40% chance of winning the nomination.
The Vice President's Surge
The vice president's surge in the betting markets has been remarkable. After initially trailing California Governor Gavin Newsom following the debate, Harris has now surged ahead of all other potential Democratic nominees on PredictIt's market, going from 14 cents a share on Monday to 40 cents on Wednesday.
Trump Emerges as the Frontrunner
The betting markets' predictions have also shifted in the general election race. According to PredictIt's odds, former President Donald Trump is now leading the field with a 58% chance of winning the 2024 election, followed by Harris at 21% and Biden at 19%.
Biden's Potential Withdrawal
The betting markets are also speculating on the possibility of Biden withdrawing from the race before the Democratic convention. Polymarket's prediction suggests a 53% chance of the president dropping out of the presidential race.
The Michelle Obama Factor
While Harris is the bookmaker's favorite to replace Biden if he drops out, a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll suggests that voters believe a different Democratic candidate has the best chance of beating Trump in November. Former First Lady Michelle Obama emerged as the only candidate comfortably ahead of Trump in a direct match-up, polling 11 points ahead of the former president at 50% to 39%. However, Obama has repeatedly stated that she has no interest in running for president.The shifting dynamics in the 2024 presidential race have captured the attention of the betting markets, and the potential for a shakeup within the Democratic party has become a topic of intense speculation. As the election cycle continues to unfold, the betting markets will undoubtedly continue to closely monitor the developments and adjust their predictions accordingly.
